Oklahoma 2026 Ballot Poll

Sampling method: A stratified random sample of 200 active Oklahoma voters — 40 drawn at random from each of the five congressional districts — using voter registration data from the Oklahoma State Election Data Warehouse. Before the random draw, the file was filtered to poll active voters only: any voter marked inactive, any voter who had not cast a ballot in the last 3 years, any voter with returned mail on file, and any voter registered at a P.O. Box were removed. Invitations and access passwords were mailed to the 200 randomly selected voters.

Participation rate: Reported as the number of ballots cast divided by the 200 invited voters, both overall and per congressional district. A high participation rate limits nonresponse bias and is the key indicator of the poll's reliability.

Sample size (n): The total number of ballots cast in each race. Every vote is from a verified Oklahoma resident, limited to one per person across device and network.

Margin of error: Calculated at the 95% confidence level using the normal approximation for a proportion. We report the worst-case (most conservative) margin — the maximum possible sampling error for a sample of this size, assuming p = 0.5. The formula is ±1.96 × √(0.25 / n).

Independent & Third Party: All independent candidates are grouped into a single "Independent" option. All third-party candidates (Libertarian, etc.) are grouped into a single "Third Party" option. Democrats and Republicans are listed by candidate first name in alphabetical order.

This is a scientific stratified random poll of active Oklahoma voters, conducted by Okies First PAC by mail with an online ballot, closing November 1, 2026. Results should be read together with the reported participation rate and margin of error. To cast your real ballot, visit the Oklahoma Voter Portal.